- Historically, oil price shocks have had limited impact on valuations. We see any pullback as a fresh entry point opportunity.
Iran Crisis: In the fog of war
- We don’t know how long the Iran Crisis would last.
- In a “Short War” concluding in under a month, we see limited 1H26 earnings impact. In fact, Banks, NBFIs, REITs and Tech Manufacturing may have upside.
- - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
Short War: no material 1H26 earnings impact
- We see limited impact to EPS in 1H26.
- Financials should remain resilient from safe-haven flows and stable NIMs supporting OCBC (SGX:O39) and DBS (SGX:D05), while SGX (SGX:S68) may see higher equities and derivatives volumes from increased risk management.
- - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
- Industrials are mixed: Sembcorp (SGX:U96) could be exposed to power price volatility, while ST Engineering (SGX:S63) benefits from defence demand.
- Internet (Sea Grab) remains operationally resilient, but could face margin pressure from elevated logistics costs.
- REITs (CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX:C38U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX:J69U), Lendlease REIT (SGX:JYEU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX:M44U)) should outperform on yield defensiveness.
- In Transport, SIA (SGX:C6L) and SATS (SGX:S58) could face near-term margin compression from fuel costs.
- Tech manufacturing stands out, with AEM (SGX:AWX), UMS (SGX:558), and Frencken (SGX:E28) supported by semicon demand and AI capex.
Long War: higher FY26 earnings downgrade risks
- Read more at SGinvestors.io.
