- We lower our outlook for Singapore to NEUTRAL from Positive. We see better relative performance of regional emerging markets (EM) compared to developed markets midway into 2H, once the rate cut cycle begins. This is especially so for ASEAN markets, which also benefit from China+1 strategy.
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Firmer electronics recovery in sight
- Recent macro data releases are shaping towards our economists’ GDP forecast of 2.2% this year.
- Our economists see better factory prospects over the course of 2024, with the tech cycle upturn key to the manufacturing recovery. This is affirmed by positive momentum in the electronics segment as it continues to pull ahead versus headline counterparts in recent months, and registered impressive double-digit y-o-y gains in latest May readings.
Tourism remains as another key source of support for the Singapore economy.
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- A boost to the return of Chinese tourists from mutual visa-free travel arrangement and robust pipeline of events should extend the ongoing tourism recovery well into 2H24.
Easing monetary stance alongside inflation
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