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Geo Energy Resources (SGX:RE4)'s 1Q26 results were below expectations. Revenue/PAT were 17%/7% of our FY26e forecast. 1Q26 production declined 36% y-o-y to 2.0mil MT, caused by a 1.2mil MT decline at the TBR mine. As TBR approaches the end of its mine life, production will shift to the larger TRA mine, which has the new infrastructure. Production target for FY26e of 11.5-12.5mil MT is unchanged (FY25: 12.5mil MT).
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The Positive
(+) Integrated infrastructure 90% completed.
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The Negative
(-) Decline in production.
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