1Q26 volumes stood at 280.9k vials (-8.7% y-o-y, +7.8% q-o-q, roughly 25% of our FY26 volume estimates), following an exceptionally strong 1Q25 when backlog fulfilment lifted shipments after earlier supply chain disruptions from June to October 2024 caused by a supply shortage at UltraGreen’s contract manufacturer.
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Soft y-o-y volume is largely a function of a high comparison base, while sequential growth points to healthy underlying demand.
On a sequential basis, volumes grew 3.1% in US and 18.1% in non-US markets, indicating that core demand continued to grow from a normalised base in 4Q25.
While no revenue figures were provided in this business update, we believe the higher average selling price in 1Q26 relative to 1Q25 likely offset the y-o-y volume decline, leaving revenue broadly flattish.
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Overall, we view 1Q26 as more reflective of base effects than any material slowdown in underlying demand.
Secured regulatory approval for Verdye in Singapore
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Above is an excerpt from a report by DBS Group Research. Clients of DBS may access the full PDF report @ https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/.
