US and Israeli attacks on Iran have massively dialed-up unpredictability. So far, the conflict presents second-order impacts to Singapore - transmitted largely via oil prices and capital flows.
Here Singapore’s political, policy and fiscal ‘certainty premium’ should attract flows and keep downside risks contained. Banks, non-bank financials, healthcare, industrials, internet, SMIDs and telcos may see incremental positives, while transport, consumer may see mixed-to-incremental negatives.
Second-order exposure to Singapore - for now.
- Read this at SGinvestors.io -
We believe Singapore should continue to benefit from safe-haven flows leveraging its 'certainty premium' offered by policy and political stability and strong fiscal capacity to deal with downside risks.
Industrials, SMIDs positive, transport most exposed.
- Read this at SGinvestors.io -
Non-bank financials could see stronger brokerage, asset management and pawn-broking activity amid higher safe-haven demand.
Consumer exposure is mixed: higher crude supports palm oil economics, though freight and input costs may squeeze margins.
Industrials and SMIDs stand to gain from higher defence spending, energy security themes and stronger oil & gas activity. Conversely, REITs and property may remain range-bound amid rate uncertainty.
Internet and telcos appear resilient given domestic revenue bases, though fuel-linked logistics costs pose margin risks.
Transport is most exposed: higher jet fuel costs and airspace disruptions could weigh on aviation margins, partially offset by hedging and surcharges.
Stock impacts.
Read more at SGinvestors.io.
Above is an excerpt from a report by Maybank Research. Clients of Maybank Securities may be the first to access the full PDF report @ https://www.maybanktrade.com.sg/.
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