SIA (SGX:C6L)’s 3QFY26 operating statistics came in in line with our expectations. Our updated 3QFY26 earnings forecast now stands at S$450m-530m (previously S$400m), reflecting the earlier-than-expected pax yield stabilisation, and weaker jet fuel prices seen in late-Nov and Dec 25.
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3QFY26 operating data in line:
Pax load rose 3.2% y-o-y to 105.3% of pre-pandemic (3QFY20) levels, slightly faster than pax capacity growth of 2.8% y-o-y. As a result, pax load factor improved 0.4ppt y-o-y to 87.5%, or 1.9ppt above pre-pandemic levels. This indicates a relatively tight supply-demand balance. SIA and Scoot carried a combined total of 10.9m passengers in 3QFY26, 6.3% higher y-o-y.
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Stabilising near-term outlook for pax yields.
Based on our recent chat with management, we understand that near-term outlook for pax yields may have stabilised. This comes as a positive surprise to us, as we were projecting pax yields to still slightly moderate over the next two quarters.
Cargo yields remaining under pressure.
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Above is an excerpt from a report by UOB Kay Hian Research. Clients of UOB Kay Hian may be the first to access the full PDF report @ https://www.utrade.com.sg/.
