With 9M25 supermarket index averaging 129.7, relative to 125.1 for 9M24, the overall industry grew 3.7%. As expected, we saw a sales volume boost from S$1bn SG60 vouchers (allocated to supermarkets), which amount to ~12% of our estimated 2024 supermarket sales.
Supermarket industry growth to outperform initial growth estimates of +3% y-o-y in 2025.
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With current progression, we believe the industry will grow closer to 4% for 2025 to reach S$8.6bn.
Likely stellar 2026 for supermarket players with record industry growth of 6% y-o-y.
Based on Jul to Sep 2025 datapoints, we estimate to see a S$250mil uplift largely attributable to the SG60 vouchers in 2H25.
Going into 2026, we expect full-year annualised uplift of ~S$500mil attributable to SG60 vouchers expiring by end 2026, which brings total supermarket sales up to S$9.1bn. This will likely act as a high base for 2027.
Maintain above-industry top-line growth at 8% y-o-y in FY26F.
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We also expect a disproportionately stronger earnings growth of about 10% y-o-y, supported by operating leverage and economies of scale.
Downgrade to HOLD with unchanged target price of S$2.60.
Read more at SGinvestors.io.
Above is an excerpt from a report by DBS Group Research. Clients of DBS may access the full PDF report @ https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/.
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