- International air traffic surged 32% year-to-date in Apr 25, and we expect profit from associates (SPIA) to rise at least 12% y-o-y in FY25e, supported by the continued recovery of inbound leisure and business travel.
- We expect a pickup in trading volume in 1H25 at the low teens, driven by rising jet fuel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) demand. The EU mandates a 2% SAF blend in 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050. As SAF volumes grow, this should support margin improvement for the oil trading business.
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- China Aviation Oil currently holds US$500mil in cash, representing over 90% of its market cap.
The Positives
Increasing contribution from SPIA.
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Increasing trading volume with a higher margin.
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