Last week the STI rallied 2.7% to 3,143.66, led by Frasers Logistic & Commercial Trust with a 9.9% gain, while the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Index gained 1.8%. The majority of the broad equity benchmark gains were attributed to the November FOMC, which saw expectations for a 25bps hike on 13 Dec 2023 significantly step down to levels last seen in June 2023.
The equity market gains coincided with 10-year UST yields declining to 4.50% last week after the benchmark yield broke above 5.00% back on 23 Oct. At the same time, the iEdge S-REIT Index gained 5.1% on the week, with Prime US REIT, Manulife US REIT, Keppel Pac Oak US REIT, Digital Core REIT and Lendlease Global Comm REIT leading the price gains.
With earnings also in focus, Japfa was the strongest performer of Singapore's most actively traded stocks with a 26% gain for the week, attributed to the company reporting its profitability is back on track, with Japfa recording a 3QFY23 operating profit of US$101.8 million from stronger feed margins as well as higher selling prices in poultry and swine.
Last week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) yields retested 4.5% levels, providing a strong bid tone to US equities that also impacted global equities. The STI rallied 2.7%, while the broader FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Index gained 1.8%. With the decline in 10-year UST yields, the FTSE EPRA NAREIT Index rallied 6.8%, with the iEdge S-REIT Index also gaining 5.1%.
The major catalyst across global bonds and equities was a stepdown in expectations for a 25bps hike at the next FOMC on 13 Dec. According the CME FedWatch Tool, those expectations have now been reduced to 5%, from as high as above 45% in late August 2023.
Throughout the 1 Nov FOMC press conference, Chair Powell maintained the Fed remained focused on achieving a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time", adding important qualifiers such as "tight policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt", adding the Fed has "slowed the process down this year to give monetary policy time to get into the economy and it takes time, we know that, and you can't rush it", and that "the good news is, we're making progress and monetary policy is restrictive and we feel like we're on a path to make more progress and it's essential that we do".
The benchmark moves have coincided with the 3Q23 earnings season.
Within the STI, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust posted the strongest gains on the week at 9.9%, while also reporting a 2HFY23 (ended 30 Sep) 0.8% y-o-y decline in revenue, a 4.0% y-o-y decline in adjusted Net Property Income, in addition to average portfolio rental reversions of +7.8% for FY23.
As detailed in the table below, among the 100 most traded stocks this year, REITs were among the stronger performers last week. The iEdge S-REIT Index gained 5.1% on the week, with Prime US REIT, Manulife US REIT, Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT, Digital Core REIT and Lendlease REIT leading the price gains.
Based on Refinitiv data, there have been more stocks beat expectations than miss expectations in Singapore and the United States in the 3Q23 earnings season thus far.
With earnings also in focus, Japfa was the strongest performer of the actively traded stocks last week with a 26% gain to $0.23, attributed to the company reporting its profitability is back on track, with Japfa recording a 3Q23 operating profit of US$101.8 million from stronger feed margins as well as higher selling prices in poultry and swine.
Among the actively traded stocks, multiple stocks that posted the stronger gains last week were among those that had also posted the bigger declines in the preceding 43 weeks of 2023. The 30 stocks of the actives that posted the strongest gains on the week, averaged price 9.3% gains last week, bringing their average total return for the 2023 year through to 3 Nov to a 5.7% decline.
The top 30 gainers on 2023 week 44 (30-Oct to 03-Nov) among the 100 most traded SGX-listed stocks in 2023-to-date are tabled below.
|Prime US REIT||OXMU||USD||$134||$0.113||$0.099||25.6||-65.8||REITs|
|Manulife US REIT||BTOU||USD||$103||$0.058||$0.053||16.0||-79.2||REITs|
|Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT||CMOU||USD||$230||$0.220||$0.195||15.2||-45.5||REITs|
|Digital Core REIT||DCRU||USD||$642||$0.570||$0.547||14.0||11.0||REITs|
|Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust||BUOU||SGD||$4,107||$1.110||$1.073||9.9||-1.7||REITs|
|Keppel Infrastructure Trust||A7RU||SGD||$2,707||$0.485||$0.461||9.0||-3.1||Materials & Resources|
|China Aviation Oil||G92||SGD||$709||$0.825||$0.813||7.8||-5.7||Industrials|
|CapitaLand Ascendas REIT||A17U||SGD||$11,762||$2.700||$2.623||7.6||3.6||REITs|
|CapitaLand India Trust||CY6U||SGD||$1,375||$1.040||$0.979||7.2||-1.0||REITs|
|Sheng Siong||OV8||SGD||$2,342||$1.570||$1.546||6.8||-1.3||Consumer Non-Cyclicals|
|Starhill Global REIT||P40U||SGD||$1,075||$0.480||$0.455||6.7||-4.6||REITs|
|Yangzijiang Financial||YF8||SGD||$1,274||$0.325||$0.319||6.6||-3.9||Financial Services|
|OUE Commercial REIT||TS0U||SGD||$1,334||$0.245||$0.236||6.5||-22.5||REITs|
|Keppel DC REIT||AJBU||SGD||$3,092||$1.810||$1.716||6.5||6.7||REITs|
|CapitaLand Investment||9CI||SGD||$15,850||$3.070||$2.959||6.2||-13.0||Financial Services|
|DFI Retail||D01||USD||$3,086||$2.280||$2.171||6.0||-20.7||Consumer Non-Cyclicals|
|CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust||C38U||SGD||$12,149||$1.840||$1.786||5.7||-4.9||REITs|
|Food Empire||F03||SGD||$606||$1.110||$1.109||5.7||82.5||Consumer Non-Cyclicals|
On the other side of the coin, the 30 least performing stocks of the 100 most traded stocks averaged a 0.1% price gain on the week, bringing their average total return for the 2023 year through to 3 Nov to a 1.9% decline.
Tianjin Da Ren Tang (SGX:T14), Samudera Shipping (SGX:S56), Jiutian Chemical (SGX:C8R), Best World (SGX:CGN) and Bumitama Agri (SGX:P8Z) averaged 4.1% declines, and were the least performing stocks for the week among the 2023-to-date 100 most actively traded stocks.