Real Estate Developers (excluding REITs) was the 3rd best-performing sector in March, with a total return of +2.7%. March was also the 3rd straight month of positive returns for the sector, after it registered total returns of +0.7% and +7.8% in Feb and Jan respectively.
The Real Estate Developers sector also saw strong investor interest in March, with net institutional inflows of S$25.9 million. It was a net buy sector for the 2nd straight month, after chalking up net inflows of S$32.1 million in February, SGX data showed.
In the 2019 YTD, the 5 best-performing, largest capitalised real estate developers were: Hong Fok (+34.6%), OUE (+23.8%), CapitaLand (+18.6%), Yanlord Land (+17.2%), and UOL Group (+16.0%). The 5 averaged a total return of +22.0% in the YTD.
There are about 70 real estate developers and operators listed on SGX. Among these, the 20 largest capitalised property plays have a combined market cap of over S$80 billion.
Positive Returns, Investor Interest
Real Estate Developers (excluding REITs) was the 3rd best-performing sector in March, with a total return of +2.7%, after Information Technology’s +4.1% total return and the REIT sector’s +3.2% total return. March was also the third straight month of positive returns for the Real Estate (non-REITs) sector, after registering total returns of +0.7% and +7.8% in February and January respectively.
The Real Estate Developers sector saw strong investor interest in March, with net institutional inflows of S$25.9 million. It was a net buy sector for the second straight month, after chalking up net inflows of S$32.1 million in February, SGX data showed.
YTD Best Performers
In the 2019 year-to-date, the 5 best-performing, largest capitalised real estate developers were: Hong Fok Corp (+34.6%), OUE Ltd (+23.8%), CapitaLand Ltd (+18.6%), Yanlord Land Group (+17.2%), and UOL Group (+16.0%). These 5 stocks have averaged a total return of +22.0% in the YTD, bringing their one-year and three-year total returns to +0.4% and +27.4% respectively.
The table below details the 20 largest capitalised real estate developers on SGX, sorted by YTD total return.
|HONG FOK CORP||H30||798||34.6||21.1||33.4||0.3||1.1|
|YANLORD LAND GROUP||Z25||2,743||17.2||-9.8||25.5||0.6||4.6|
|UOL GROUP LTD||U14||5,986||16.0||-15.0||30.9||0.6||2.4|
|PERENNIAL REAL ESTATE||40S||1,072||7.3||-20.9||-27.0||0.4||0.6|
|HO BEE LAND LTD||H13||1,690||7.2||5.2||30.1||0.5||3.2|
|UNITED INDUSTRIAL CORP||U06||4,154||7.0||-9.6||1.5||0.6||1.2|
|WING TAI HOLDINGS||W05||1,573||5.7||4.7||23.2||0.5||1.5|
|UNITED OVERSEAS AUSTRALIA||EH5||906||0.8||-4.6||43.0||0.6||3.8|
|FIRST SPONSOR GROUP||ADN||844||0.8||6.2||23.1||0.6||1.8|
|BUKIT SEMBAWANG ESTATES||B61||1,460||0.0||-3.9||51.0||1.1||0.7|
Residential Sector Outlook
Following the Singapore government’s move in the second half of 2018 to further tighten rules on property purchases, which included higher stamp duty rates and tougher loan-to-value limits, home buyers have been more cautious, resulting in slower sales and lower transaction volumes, analysts noted.
Analysts expect residential property prices to be range-bound in 2019, with forecasts of small decline to a small increase. OCBC Investment Research said in a report published 2 April 2019 that it is keeping its private residential property price growth forecast of -3% to 2% for this year, but noted the full-year figure could come in at the lower end of its projections.
Last week, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released the flash estimate of Singapore’s private residential property price index for the first quarter of 2019. The private residential property index fell 0.6% in 1Q 2019 from the previous quarter, extending the 0.1% decline seen in 4Q 2018. On a year-on-year basis, the index gained 3.2%. The landed property segment remained resilient in 1Q 2019, with a rise of 1.1% QoQ, while the non-landed property segment suffered a decline of 1.0%.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up till mid-March. The URA will release its full set of real estate statistics for 1Q 2019 on 26 April 2019.