- Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92)'s results were below expectations. FY25 revenue/PATMI were 92%/86% of our forecasts. 2H25 spirits PATMI dropped 3% y-o-y. Volumes contracted sharply by almost 11% y-o-y in 4Q25. The border dispute with Cambodia resulted in the huge migrant worker population leaving Thailand and caution in the supply chains.
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The Positive
Healthy Thailand beer.
- Beer volumes in Thailand grew 10.8% y-o-y in FY25 to 997.7mil litres (FY24 +16.3%). It is the 2nd consecutive year of double-digit growth and record volumes.
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The Negative
Significant weakness in spirits.
- Spirit volumes fell almost 5% y-o-y in 2H25. There was a sharp 10.8% decline in volumes in 4Q25 due to the border conflict, which caused several hundred thousand Cambodian workers to leave the country. They were a large consumer of ThaiBev white spirits.
Outlook
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