Optus experienced 2 emergency call service outages on 18 Sep and 28 Sep 2025.
What happened and how it compares to past incidents?
Both disruptions affected only emergency calls, leaving broader mobile and internet services operational. The first outage, attributed to human error, tragically resulted in 3 casualties and was not linked to underinvestment.
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Sensitivity analysis of possible impact on Optus:
While the 2022–23 incidents had limited impact, the recent consecutive outages, combined with casualty-related sensitivities and Optus’ past track record, indicate heightened near-term financial risks.
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additional opex and capex to enhance network redundancy and resilience, despite significant prior investments in network and spectrum over the past decade; and
potential for increased provisioning, consistent with Optus’ historically conservative approach.
Although the full impact remains uncertain, a conservative scenario assumes a 5% decline in Optus mobile revenue for FY27, no margin growth until FY28, a 2–3ppt increase in capex intensity, and AUD200m in provisions. Under these assumptions, Singtel Group’s FY28 earnings and SOTP-based valuation could decrease by 5–6%.
Diversification and buyback mitigate steep correction.
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Above is an excerpt from a report by Maybank Research. Clients of Maybank Securities may be the first to access the full PDF report @ https://www.maybanktrade.com.sg/.
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