- Optus experienced 2 emergency call service outages on 18 Sep and 28 Sep 2025.
What happened and how it compares to past incidents?
- Both disruptions affected only emergency calls, leaving broader mobile and internet services operational. The first outage, attributed to human error, tragically resulted in 3 casualties and was not linked to underinvestment.
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Sensitivity analysis of possible impact on Optus:
- While the 2022–23 incidents had limited impact, the recent consecutive outages, combined with casualty-related sensitivities and Optus’ past track record, indicate heightened near-term financial risks.
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- additional opex and capex to enhance network redundancy and resilience, despite significant prior investments in network and spectrum over the past decade; and
- potential for increased provisioning, consistent with Optus’ historically conservative approach.
- Although the full impact remains uncertain, a conservative scenario assumes a 5% decline in Optus mobile revenue for FY27, no margin growth until FY28, a 2–3ppt increase in capex intensity, and AUD200m in provisions. Under these assumptions, Singtel Group’s FY28 earnings and SOTP-based valuation could decrease by 5–6%.
Diversification and buyback mitigate steep correction.
- Read more at SGinvestors.io.
