Market Outlook - RHB Invest 2024-12-16: Will 2025 Be The “Year Of Goldilocks”?

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Slower global (ex-US) inflation;

Lower global interest rates.

Global outlook

• Market doomsayers have focussed on expecting a further curtailment of global manufacturing and trade activities in 2025 – this is a view we do not subscribe to. Rather, we are encouraged by the resilient global economic growth momentum for most of 2024, which has proven to disproof recessionist views.
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• We keep our US and China y-o-y GDP growth forecasts at 2.0% and 4.8% for 2025. Most of our ASEAN GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus estimate, coupled with a relatively tame inflation prognosis. We pencil Malaysia’s GDP growth at 5.0% y-o-y in 2025F, against a 5.1% y-o-y growth outlook for 2024. Other ASEAN economies will likely see further upside growth from the pace recorded in 2024, with Indonesia’s at +5.2% y-o-y and Thailand’s at +3.0% y-o-y, while Singapore’s GDP growth may decelerate to +3.0% y-o-y (vs the 2024 forecast of +3.4% y-o-y) on the back of a relatively stronger base year.

Resilient growth for Singapore in 2025

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Shekhar Jaiswal RHB Securities Research | https://www.rhbgroup.com/ 2024-12-16 SGinvestors.io

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