Mapletree Logistics Trust - Maybank Research 2024-04-30: Declining Distributions; Rough Patch Continues

• Notwithstanding pockets of weakness, Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX:M44U)'s portfolio valuation was broadly stable. We lower our estimates and DDM-based Mapletree Logistics Trust target price by 24% and maintain HOLD rating.

Focus on capital recycling

• - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
• High interest costs, weak regional currencies and continued weakness in China operations was offset by otherwise stable operations and divestment gains.
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Headwinds from China, FX and rates

• Mapletree Logistics Trust's 4QFY24 gross revenue and NPI was up 1.2% and 0.6% y-o-y. q-o-q, but down 1.7% and 2.6%, respectively. Growth on the year was driven by acquisitions and improved performance partly offset by China, divestments and weaker FX. On a constant currency basis, revenue and NPI would have grown 3.6% and 3%, respectively.
• Q-o-q weakness was driven by lack of income from divested properties, weaker performance in China and Singapore and currency weakness.
• Negative impact from higher borrowing cost and enlarged number of units was offset by distribution of divestment gains, resulting in modest decline of 2.5% y-o-y for 4QFY24 DPU. Full-year trends were similar and divestment gains cushioned the DPU decline significantly.
• Mapletree Logistics Trust's portfolio occupancy was maintained at 96%, though occupancy in China remained at 93%. Portfolio rent reversion was +2.9%. China registered reversion of -10% and is likely to remain negative for this fiscal as well. However, overall portfolio reversion will continue to be positive.

Focus on capital recycling

• Read more at SGinvestors.io.

Krishna Guha Maybank Research | https://www.maybank-ke.com.sg/ 2024-04-30 SGinvestors.io

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