Thai Beverage - Phillip Securities 2023-11-24: Waiting For Macro To Turnaround

• Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92)'s 2023 revenue and PATMI were at 97%/95% of our FY23e forecasts. Beer revenue and associate earnings were below our estimates.
  • Spirits EBITDA grew 3% y-o-y in 4Q23 to THB5.9bn dueto growth in volumes.
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• Beer is facing soft consumer demand in Vietnam due to the weak economic conditions, and made worse by five cumulative rounds of price increases since 2021.
• In Thailand, the emergence of Carabao as a new beer competitor further raised the pricing and marketing intensity. We expect growth in spirits revenue from normalisation of white spirits volume, price increases and higher mix of brown spirits. More aggressive fiscal spending in Thailand next year will support consumption spending.
• We lower our FY24e PATMI forecast for Thai Beverage by 9%. Our BUY recommendation is maintained but target price for Thai Beverage is lowered from S$0.75 to S$0.67.

The Positive

Resilient spirits volume.

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The Negative

Beer still suffering.

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Paul Chew Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2023-11-24 SGinvestors.io

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