- Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92)'s 9MFY23 results were below expectations, with revenue and PATMI at 71%/65% of our FY23e forecasts. Weakness in beer sales was steeper than expected.
- Spirits revenue climbed 12% y-o-y to THB28.5bn in 3QFY23, largely on 10% volume jump and improvement in selling price from better mix of brown spirits and price adjustment. 3QFY23 spirits volume was a record 152.7mil litres.
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- We lower our FY23e revenue by 10% and PATMI 7%. Our BUY recommendation is maintained but target price for Thai Beverage is lowered from S$0.80 to S$0.75. We peg 18x P/E FY23e earnings for the core operations, and its listed associates are valued at market valuations.
The Positive
Rebound in spirits volume, revenue and margins.
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The Negative
Beer earnings collapsed.
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