- Prudential (SGX:K6S)’s 1H23 new business profit (NBP) growth y-o-y was 39% on a constant exchange rate (CER) basis and 36% on an actual exchange rate (AER) basis (vs our forecast: 34% AER). This beats AIA’s y-o-y NBP growth of 37% CER and 32% AER, and Manulife’s -1% y-o-y CER and AER.
FY27F new business profit targets likely to be exceeded, in our view
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- We think its NBP targets can be exceeded given the multiple favourable mainland Chinese visitors (MCV) tailwinds (see Prudential - Hong Kong Strength Offsets Some Regional Weakness dated 16 Aug 2023) and higher Hong Kong margins if US interest rates fall and normalise by FY27F.
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Prudential's 1H23 new business profit growth dominated by Hong Kong
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