- We expect First Resources (SGX:EB5)'s earnings to continue growing q-o-q in 4Q, as output peaks and as unit costs moderate from reduced fertilisation activities. Further out, the full impact of the Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJ) acquisition should drive earnings in FY26.
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First Resources’ 9M25 results beat expectations.
- 3Q25 core net profit was flattish q-o-q but jumped 43.4% y-o-y, bringing the 9M25 figure to US$239.6m (+58% y-o-y), i.e. beating expectations, at 82-84% of our and Street FY25 estimates.
- 3Q25 included a 3-month PBT contribution from ANJ. The main discrepancy was higher-than-expected external FFB acquired, which led to loftier-than-anticipated CPO volumes (+27.8% y-o-y) in 9M25.
Briefing highlights:
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- First Resources expects 4Q25 to bring the highest quarterly output for the year, with October being the best month. It continues to guide for 20-25% FFB growth for FY25. We keep our FY25F FFB growth at 21% y-o-y, and expect growth for FY26-27 at 6-7% y-o-y.
- First Resources is keeping its unit cost guidance at US$290-310/tonne (0% y-o-y-to-minus 6% y-o-y). First Resources applied 90% of its annual fertliliser budget in 9M25 (from 50% in 1H). For 2026, it has tendered for part of its 2026 fertiliser requirements at prices that are 10% higher y-o-y;
- Downstream margin continued to improve y-o-y in 9M25, from higher sales volumes and a higher estimated ASP. These, in turn, stemmed from higher biodiesel output due to the B40 mandate, contributions from its new plant, and higher by-product glycerine prices. Downstream volumes and margins should remain strong, given First Resources’ biodiesel allocation of 700k tonnes for FY25 (vs 250k tonnes in FY24).
Earnings revision
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