- Maintain NEUTRAL on Golden Agri-Resources, with new SOP-based S$0.29 target price from S$0.30, 6% upside. Productivity is expected to peak in 4Q24, while ASPs should also improve q-o-q.
- - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
Golden Agri’s 3Q24 earnings were largely in line with our, but missed Street expectations.
- Golden Agri-Resources recorded a 35% q-o-q increase in core net profit, bringing 9M24 profit to US$180m (-24 y-o-y), making up 71% and 57% of our and Street FY24F.
- - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
3Q24 nucleus FFB rose 10% q-o-q
- 3Q24 nucleus FFB rose 10% q-o-q (-17% y-o-y) bringing 9M24 output to -12% y-o-y, i.e. lower than management’s growth guidance of -5% y-o-y and our projection of -7% y-o-y for FY24F.
- Management expects peak output to be in 4Q24, with q-o-q output growth of at least 10% q-o-q. As such, Golden Agri-Resources is keeping its FY24F growth guidance of -5% y-o-y, while it expects single-digit growth recovery in FY25F.
- We keep our FFB growth projections at -7% for FY24F and +2% for FY25-26F, to be conservative.
Unit costs fell 2% q-o-q
- Read more at SGinvestors.io.
