Genting Singapore - DBS Research 2024-11-12: Odds To Be Better In 2025; The House Will Eventually Win

• Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) reported revenue of S$562mil and adj. EBITDA of S$164mil in 2Q24, representing declines of 19% and a substantial 53% y-o-y, respectively. On a q-o-q basis, revenue declined 2% and adj. EBITDA declined by 19%. 3Q24 results below our and consensus’ expectations.
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3Q24 y-o-y revenue decline largely attributed to the 28% y-o-y decline in Gaming.

• The top-line decline was primarily driven by a 28% y-o-y drop in Gaming revenue due to a lower VIP rolling volume of S$7.7bn (-32% y-o-y) and a lower win rate of 2.45% in 3Q24 vs 3.19% in 3Q23. This was marginally offset by a 1% increase in non-gaming revenue, which continues to be impacted by the ongoing RWS renovation.
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Lower VIP rolling volume attributed to industry-wide decline and RWS renovation.

• VIP rolling volume fell for its peer, Marina Bay Sands (MBS), from US$8.1bn to US$6.6bn, a 20% decline. We believe the decline at RWS was higher at 32%, partly due to ongoing renovation works reducing room count and in turn catchment of VIP customers.
• We believe the industry wide decline could be attributable to lower Chinese VIP customers due to the ongoing macroeconomic issues in China and likely increased preference for domestic gaming (Macau’s 3Q24 gross gaming revenue was up 14% y-o-y).

Significant and disproportionate decline of 53% in adj. EBITDA decline likely on operating deleverage.

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Jason SUM CFA DBS Group Research | Zheng Feng CHEE DBS Group Research | https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/ 2024-11-12 SGinvestors.io

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