- We initiate a BUY rating on China Aviation Oil (SGX:G92) with a target price of S$1.20, pegged to 11.5x FY24F P/E (10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 12.7x), representing a potential upside of 29.7%.
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- Current valuations of 8.9x FY24F P/E and 0.7x P/B are attractive with strong earnings growth potential ahead.
Recovery in domestic flights, international flights to follow suit.
- While domestic flights within China have recovered to pre-COVID levels since mid- 2023, outbound flights are slower to recover at only ~65% of pre-COVID levels in Dec’23. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has estimated China’s international air travel market to hit 80% of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2024.
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China Aviation Oil’s key asset – SPIA, to benefit from return of international travellers.
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