OCBC (SGX:O39)'s 9M23 earnings were ahead of MIBG/Street expectations. Largely, this is being driven by NIMs, which are now peaking.
While NIMs should stay elevated in a higher-for-longer interest rate backdrop, interest income growth is likely to see resistance as loan growth stalls.
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Nevertheless, we expect OCBC's dividend yields upwards of 6% in 2023-25E supported by strong capital. Maintain HOLD.
Peaking NIMs.
All of the net interest income (NII) expansion q-o-q was delivered by higher net interest margins (NIM). However, sequential momentum is slowing from a peak of 2.31% in 4Q22 to 2.27% now.
OCBC's management claims Sep exit NIM is at 2.23% pointing to further slowdown. With most of the loan book already re-priced and credit demand low (loans flat q-o-q), overall margin trajectory could trend downwards going forward.
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NoII prospects remain unclear
3Q23 non-interest income remained volatile with weaker insurance and trading.
Fees were a bright spot, rising +7% q-o-q from better wealth managemet. However, whether this signals a sustained recovery is too soon to say.
Asset quality well supported.
Read more at SGinvestors.io.
Above is an excerpt from a report by Maybank Research. Clients of Maybank Securities may be the first to access the full PDF report @ https://www.maybanktrade.com.sg/.
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