- International tourist arrivals to Thailand and Vietnam are set to improve as Chinese tourists return, boosting on-trade alcohol consumption volumes.
- Move Forward Party’s recent electoral win may see Thai Beverage cede market share to new smaller entrants, but is unlikely to have a significant impact given Thai Beverage’s commanding market share.
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Slight dip in tourist arrivals.
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- Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand continued its sharp recovery, surging 21.7% m-o-m and 36.7x y-o-y in Apr 23. We opine that the elevated tourist arrivals may help boost and support domestic alcohol consumption levels. We expect 28m-30m tourist arrivals in 2023, roughly 70-75% of the 40m arrivals pre-pandemic.
Impending change.
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