- Prudential announced 1Q23 new business profits (NBP) rose 30% y-o-y on a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, or 43% y-o-y once economic impact was excluded. Most impressively, its Hong Kong (HK) NBP y-o-y growth was 106%, with Hong Kong annualised premium equivalent (APE) sales up 299%.
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106% growth rate could grow further in 2Q23F, 3Q23F and 4Q23F
- We expect Prudential's Hong Kong 2Q23F–4Q23F new business profits (NBP) growth to improve vs 1Q23’s 106% y-o-y, especially since mainland Chinese visitors is clearly rising rapidly. As noted in report: AIA Group - Benchmarking MCV; Better than 2018 dated 4 Apr 2023, rising mainland Chinese visitors use of the high speed rail (HSR) to Hong Kong could see investors underestimate a rebound in mainland Chinese visitors.
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Tapping into growth potential of other mainland China regions
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