Thai Beverage - Phillip Securities 2023-02-13: A Slow Start To FY23

• Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92)'s 1QFY23 (Oct-Dec 2022) revenue/EBITDA was below expectations at 27%/and 25% of our FY23e forecasts, respectively. 1Q is a seasonally stronger quarter.
• 1QFY23 spirits volume contracted 15% y-o-y to 175mil litres after record volumes a year eariler, which enjoyed trade-inventory loading ahead of price increases.
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The Positive

Rebound in beer revenue.

• Beer continued to enjoy revenue growth of 13.7% y-o-y driven primarily by higher prices. The uptick in volumes was a more modest 4.5% y-o-y to 684mil litres. Sales growth in Vietnam is expected to weaken near-term due to the weakening economy, especially in manufacturing.
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The Negative

Weak spirit volumes.

• Revenue declined 6.4% y-o-y, dragged down by a contraction of volumes by 15.4% y-o-y. Offsetting the weak volumes were higher prices and a better sales mix of brown spirits (vis-à-vis white spirits). A year ago volumes benefitted from front-loading of volumes ahead of price increases.

Outlook

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Paul Chew Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2023-02-13 SGinvestors.io

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