It is rather difficult to project earnings beyond 1 year, which is what I learned from Lee metals and silverlake axis, Yet, because of the "unqiue" or "unfortunate" circumstances of Covid-19, it is quite possible that we can project 2 consecutive years of growth. 2020, is a recovery year from a low base, with 2021 being a "growth" year, just by the virtue of execution of shelved plans. Lets start:Koufu:1) In their updates, H2 is already better than H1 due to Phase 2. Yet, we know the F&B retailing segment will still be mostly constrained by the WFH affecting stalls' business at those near office and tourist attraction and also by the maximum of 5 people capacity2) 2021 is a recovery year, due to a low base effect, it is a no brainer that earnings will be better. 3) Assum

 After reading the book "Market Masters" a  few times, there are at least 2 "Masters" that swear by free cash flow yield. In fact, they both mentioned 8- 10% yield as a very attractive proposition. Hence, I did a scan of all the companies in my portfolio, excluding the reits and financial companies, and discovered several such companies. I calculated FCF yield by using 5 years average OCF minus  5 year average PPE minus 5 year Purchase of Business (If regular and significant), then divide by number of shares and then finally the price. Data drawn from FSM Screener. I gave Sembcorp Industries a miss, since it is considered a "new" business after demerger and Keppel, because its number are too volatile, for the numbers to be meaningful.They are:1) Lung Kee (HK 0255) (15%)

 Blind Spot 1When it comes to investment, I have wondered aloud what is my competence of circle. The recent rally of the market (Which has turned as I am writing this), makes me realise:1) Almost all counters in my radar raises with the raising tide. There are some salted fish that didnt move, but a quick check makes me realised I do not really need skills to pick the right stock during a raising market. The odds are heavily stacked against one when the tide rises or falls.2) My competence hence is to prevent permanent loss such that a company go belly up. I look at various ratios etc. But the "outsized" gains depends a lot of positioning your portfolio according to the themes. A lot of positive news that happen recently depend on luck rather than skills. 3) Thus it seems, temper

  Market has been on a bullish run since the world breathed news of Pfizer’s COVID19 vaccine with an efficacy of more than 90%. Market crept higher on Moderna news that its vaccine is slightly better than Pfizer’s. While we are feeling optimistic about a resumption of the normal that we were used to, I believe most of us can’t help but feel pity that perhaps we had missed the lows in March 2020 and early November 2020. Should we ride the upswing as charting indicators seem to suggest or should we build some defense in our portfolio?   This is the TradersGPS daily chart of Moderna. It has been moving up ever since CoVid came into focus and TradersGPS system was able to capture a massive 180% first leg up and then a quick 30% on the recent vaccine news.   Here is the Tr

During crisis, a consumer may not able to afford luxury products but still need to eat and drink to survive. Therefore, an investor may consider 48 Food & Beverage (F&B) stocks in Singapore, especially those defensive growth stocks. In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on 9 Singapore F&B Giant Stocks which are efficient in making money with food as essential products (consumer staples) but having mixed impacts during COVID-19 stock crisis. Bonus for readers who could read the entire article: a strategy to eat and drink for free for lifetime. 1) Supermarket F&B Stocks – Sheng Siong (SGX: OV8) – Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01) 2) Restaurant F&B Stocks – Japan Foods Holding (SGX: 5OI) – Old Chang Kee (SGX: 5ML)

2020 1H is really a roller coaster ride. In march, the market drops more than 5% consecutive for days. The plan to purchase companies as they fall 20% became 25% to 30%, and towards the end of march become a wait and see move.There are several questionable coporate actions, the purpose of the piece is to crystallize the thinking process through writing, and please forgive me if I sound incoherence.1) Moments of freezing in actionBut all accounts, Singpost, Hong Kong Land, Capitaland has hit 30% threhold of fall. Yet, I freeze. I have not mentioned Hong Kong counters like 0517 cosco and GA pack. While it is understandable to focus the firepower in the local market where there is high degree of familarity, there is no reason why I let a 30% fall go, and I did nothing.Reflection: When the mar

The bear market has brought intense reactions. Everyone has different plans or coping mechanisms.My friend ask for divine advice. I am not kidding. The advice he got is stay out of the market for the time being. That is when I started buying when STI is at 3000. The way I see it, there are a few ways.1) Exit to a level of comfort, taking some loss if necessary and stay out of the market 2) Accumulate at various points and continue buying3) Short the market4) Rotate your holdings, buy and sell at the same time and liquid some bonds (if u have)5) Look at signals (whatever sect u below) and trade in and out of marketIf u have a different option that I have not heard of, please leave a comment below.The point I am trying to make is, no matter which path u take, u will most probably b

This will be a short post.I believe in investing, we need the connect the numbers to a story to make better sense of a business. U can call it growth modeling or revenue projection, but I feel both u can't really make it buy or sell call without both.For a stock that I owned, I usually sit up when it falls 20 percent. I will ask my self to do 3 things. 1) Buy more, 2) Sell some or all, 3) find out more so that I can do 1) or 2) within days or a week.This approach has mix results but it keeps me sanity and allow me to sleep well. I will share examples and what I have learn from themA few examples. Sembcorp Industries, SIA engineering etc. Both I have been accumulating as they retreat. SIA engineering has rebound from a low of near 2 dollars and to a high of close to 3 dollars before th

Chairman message:Dear readers, it has been a while. 2020 has turned out quite unexpectedly. When your truly is preparing the CNY just more than a week ago, he could not have expected how serious the Wuhan virus could become. Nonetheless, we keep our steel and purchase several counters that were on our radar and hit our alert price. We will discuss more of that later in our future plans to 2020. In 2019, there were many firsts. We start investing using CPF, SRS and for the first time, enjoyed the rights to subscribe to Areit. We apologize to the lack of data for year 2018 as the management team went into depression mode.Operation ReviewDividends received:2016 - $38492017 - $22002018 --2019 - $2375Vested amount is 66K in cash account, SRS 9.3K and CPF 5.7K2019 is a year of accumulation but o