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An official El Nino Advisory was declared by the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA), although the strength of the event has yet to be confirmed. We believe CPO prices will remain supported at current levels with an upside risk should the El Nino be deemed a strong one.
El Nino has developed
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Should a strong El Nino occur, palm oil output would be affected negatively – this impact can last for as long as two years, depending on the severity. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has also declared El Nino to be here, expecting it to be either a strong or very strong event.
El Nino usually results in a yield drop of between 2% and 20%.
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Historically, El Nino usually results in a yield drop of between 2% and 20%. We note that during the two strong El Nino episodes in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016: There was a 17% decline in yield in 1998-1999 and a 14% decline in yield in 2016-2017 i.e. a one-year lagged impact.
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Keeping to our CPO price forecasts
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Above is an excerpt from a report by RHB Securities Research.
Clients of RHB may be the first to access the full PDF report @ https://www.rhbtradesmart.com/.
Singapore Research RHB Securities Research | https://www.rhbgroup.com/ 2026-06-22
Previous report by RHB:
2026-05-18 First Resources - Strong 1Q26; Time To Take Some Profit Off The Table.
Price targets by 2 other brokers at First Resources Target Prices.
Listing of research reports at First Resources Analyst Reports.
Relevant links:
First Resources Share Price History,
First Resources Announcements,
First Resources Dividend Payout Dates & Corporate Actions,
First Resources News
