- We lower Singapore Airlines (SIA, SGX:C6L)’s 2QFY26 earnings estimate to S$30m-130m, a major drop y-o-y, due mainly to the Air India drags.
Sep 25 operation data: pax in line; cargo a miss.
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- Sep 2025 cargo load dropped 3.8% y-o-y to 91.9% of pre-pandemic levels; this is deemed a miss as we were projecting flattish or a slight growth in cargo load. SIA noted that the weak Sep 25 cargo performance was partly attributable to Typhoon Ragasa, which affected its cargo operations from the East Asia routes. Cargo capacity dropped 0.8% y-o-y due to the typhoon. Cargo load factor weakened 1.8ppt y-o-y to 56.2%, or 3.3ppt below pre-pandemic levels.
Jet fuel rebounded q-o-q, but remained benign in 2QFY26.
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- Based on our estimates, SIA’s average unhedged jet fuel cost per barrel in 2QFY26 (i.e. Jul-Sep 25) would be 5-6% higher q-o-q, but 8-9% lower y-o-y.
Air India expected to be a more significant drag in 2QFY26.
- Read more at SGinvestors.io.
