- The implied 2HFY25F securities turnover and derivatives trading volume based on the Jan 2025 market data are significantly below our estimates. The elevated near-term market volatility will imply sequentially higher derivatives volumes but we expect the securities daily average traded value (SDAV) to remain flat h-o-h in 2HFY25.
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- We expect growth to moderate from FY26 and note that our estimates are in line with consensus.
Jan 2025 data came in softer than expected.
- SGX reported Jan 2025 securities turnover and SDAV of S$20.8bn (+1% y-o-y, +4% m-o-m) and S$1m (+11% y-o-y, +9% m-o-m), aided by growth in trading activity across all client segments led by REITs and index stocks. It noted that increased risk-management activity over the Lunar New Year holiday, heightened volatility amid a technology selloff, and global policymaking uncertainty supported higher trading activity.
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- Although this is just one month of data for 2HFY25F, we assess that the implied securities turnover and derivatives volume came in 19% and 10% below our estimates.
Growth is largely in line with guidance.
- Read more at SGinvestors.io.
