The unexpected election of Donald Trump as US President has sparked increased volatility and uncertainty in global markets this week. A Trump victory initially triggered a knee-jerk collapse in stock market futures and a surge in gold prices as investors fled to haven assets, but since then, global equity and commodity markets have registered mixed performances.
The three most active ETFs on SGX for the two days surrounding the US Presidential elections (8-10 November) were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF, iShares MSCI India Index ETF, SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF
The three best-performing ETFs over the two days were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF (+1.8%), db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR) (+1.7%), and iShares MSCI India Index ETF (+1.3%).
The unexpected election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has sparked increased volatility and uncertainty in global markets this week. A Trump victory initially triggered a collapse in stock market futures and a surge in gold prices as investors fled to haven assets, but since then, global equity and commodity markets have staged mixed performances. A sell-off in emerging market stocks deepened this afternoon amid concern that developing economies will face capital outflows and weaker exports, following Trump’s pledges to restrict imports and boost fiscal stimulus, which could hasten interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Investors are betting on an 80% chance that the Fed will raise rates next month and expectations are building for more increases, fed fund futures data tracked by Bloomberg show. Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed above 2% for the first time since January amid speculation the president-elect’s fiscal policies could widen the US budget deficit and stoke inflation.
Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a record high, while the S&P 500 Index capped a 4% weekly gain, its best performance in two years, on speculation Trump’s stimulus plans would boost domestic growth. Most Asian equities were lower in afternoon trade, with the exception of Australia, Japan, and China, which entered a bull market on signs its economy was stabilising.
Performances over 8-10 Nov
The 10 most active ETFs on SGX for the two days surrounding the US Presidential elections (8-10 November) were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF, iShares MSCI India Index ETF, SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF, db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR), db x-trackers MSCI Indonesia Index UCITS ETF, db x-trackers FTSE China 50 UCITS ETF (DR), db x-trackers MSCI China Index UCITS ETF (DR), db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam UCITS ETF, db x-trackers MSCI Brazil Index UCITS ETF (DR) and db x-trackers MSCI Philippines IM Index UCITS ETF (DR).
Over the two days, these 10 most active ETFs averaged a two-day price gain of 0.7%. The three best performers over the two days were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF (+1.8%), db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR) (+1.7%), and iShares MSCI India Index ETF (+1.3%). The three most active ETFs during this period were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF, iShares MSCI India Index ETF and SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF.
On 9 November, the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF registered large swings during the trading day – it sank 0.9% from its 7 November close to a morning low before rebounding as much as 4.2% to an intraday high four hours later when Trump’s victory appeared imminent.
The 10 most active ETFs over 8-10 November 2016 are detailed below in Singapore dollars and sorted by turnover.
| Names | 2-Day Turnover (8-10 Nov) | 2-Day Total Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| SPDR® Gold Shares ETF | 16,676,431.93 | 1.8 |
| iShares MSCI India Index ETF | 9,423,369.29 | 1.3 |
| SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF | 8,232,020.00 | 0.0 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 2,684,331.44 | 1.7 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Indonesia Index UCITS ETF | 2,307,170.03 | -0.5 |
| db x-trackers FTSE China 50 UCITS ETF (DR) | 1,938,343.70 | 0.8 |
| db x-trackers MSCI China Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 1,847,682.77 | 0.8 |
| db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam UCITS ETF | 1,773,243.00 | 0.8 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Brazil Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 1,669,694.92 | 0.2 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Philippines IM Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 1,627,693.63 | 0.1 |
| Average | 0.7 |
Source: SGX, Bloomberg & SGX StockFacts (data as of 10 November 2016)
Month-to-Date Performances
The 10 most active ETFs on SGX in the November month-to-date were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF, iShares MSCI India Index ETF, SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF, db x-trackers MSCI Indonesia Index UCITS ETF, db x-trackers MSCI Brazil Index UCITS ETF (DR), CIMB FTSE ASEAN40 ETF, db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR), db x-trackers FTSE China 50 UCITS ETF (DR), db x-trackers MSCI China Index UCITS ETF (DR) and db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam UCITS ETF.
In the MTD, these 10 most active ETFs averaged a total return of 0.3%, taking their one-year and three-year total returns to 12.2% and 15.2% respectively. The three best performers in terms of MTD total returns were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF, db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR) and db x-trackers FTSE China 50 UCITS ETF (DR).
The above-mentioned ETFs saw a 227.3% YoY rise in turnover for the month, increasing from S$32.5 million in November 2015 to S$106.3 million in the same period this year. This brings the total 12-month turnover to S$1.2 billion.
The three most active ETFs over the month of November were SPDR® Gold Shares ETF, iShares MSCI India Index ETF and SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF .
The 10 most active ETFs in November 2016 are detailed below in Singapore dollars and sorted by MTD turnover.
| Names | MTD Turnover 2016 | MTD Turnover 2015 | YTD Turnover 2016 | 12M Turnover | YTD Turnover 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR® Gold Shares ETF | 42,364,476.67 | 12,775,223.23 | 638,946,246.39 | 687,293,613.52 | 421,251,799.46 |
| iShares MSCI India Index ETF | 20,438,174.77 | 7,927,650.51 | 351,746,438.25 | 433,361,351.13 | 502,751,238.28 |
| SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF | 15,631,508.00 | 2,422,273.00 | 318,095,949.00 | 352,639,769.00 | 365,214,065.00 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Indonesia Index UCITS ETF | 6,683,878.10 | 1,900,171.82 | 112,667,272.10 | 123,896,643.04 | 67,381,502.85 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Brazil Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 4,564,133.60 | 198,615.53 | 34,261,756.54 | 38,393,490.41 | 8,106,336.27 |
| CIMB FTSE ASEAN40 ETF | 4,156,018.41 | N/A | 29,758,889.99 | 30,400,897.19 | 14,113,942.48 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 3,845,648.99 | 533,485.13 | 77,657,450.99 | 78,828,585.87 | 34,137,369.20 |
| db x-trackers FTSE China 50 UCITS ETF (DR) | 3,099,610.12 | 831,495.84 | 58,987,708.78 | 66,732,504.32 | 75,709,988.06 |
| db x-trackers MSCI China Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 2,970,530.47 | 1,492,517.42 | 53,536,845.65 | 59,514,978.58 | 79,145,629.71 |
| db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam UCITS ETF | 2,528,575.09 | 4,392,162.46 | 42,413,364.57 | 50,853,924.75 | 55,490,681.43 |
Source: SGX, Bloomberg & SGX StockFacts (data as of 10 November 2016)
| Names | Total Return MTD % | Total Return 12M % | 3 Year Total Return Annualized % | 3 Year Total Return % | 30 Day Volatility | Total Return YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR® Gold Shares ETF | 2.0 | 16.5 | 3.7 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 19.8 |
| iShares MSCI India Index ETF | -0.7 | 6.0 | 12.1 | 41.0 | 16.4 | 5.2 |
| SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF | 0.7 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 11.0 | 0.6 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Indonesia Index UCITS ETF | -0.3 | 27.4 | 8.3 | 27.0 | 14.3 | 23.7 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Brazil Index UCITS ETF (DR) | -0.4 | 55.5 | N/A | N/A | 27.4 | 82.5 |
| CIMB FTSE ASEAN40 ETF | 0.1 | 8.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 11.1 | 9.3 |
| db x-trackers MSCI Thailand Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 1.4 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 10.9 | 29.7 | 21.6 |
| db x-trackers FTSE China 50 UCITS ETF (DR) | 0.9 | -1.1 | 6.0 | 18.9 | 19.6 | 4.3 |
| db x-trackers MSCI China Index UCITS ETF (DR) | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 4.4 |
| db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam UCITS ETF | -1.3 | -1.5 | 3.3 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 1.8 |
| Average | 0.3 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 15.2 | 17.0 | 17.3 |
Source: SGX, Bloomberg & SGX StockFacts (data as of 10 November 2016)
ETFs are investment funds listed and traded intraday on a stock exchange. The majority aim to track the performance of an index and provide access to a wide variety of markets and asset classes, including local stocks, international securities, bonds, commodities or money markets.
Each ETF gives investors access to the performance of the asset that comprises the underlying index. Investing in the ETF is also less costly if one was to build a similar portfolio by buying the individual stocks. It also provides exposure to international markets and asset classes that may be inaccessible to individual investors.
