Singapore Airlines - UOB Kay Hian 2026-06-16: Pax Load Factor Moderates Due To Operation Resumptions Of Middle Eastern Carriers

• We forecast SIA (SGX:C6L) to record a net loss ranging from S$20m-300m in 1QFY27, due to a surge in jet fuel prices and expanded losses from Air India.

• SIA’s profitability is expected to recover in the remainder of FY27, driven by cost pass-throughs and weakening fuel prices amid recent positive development of the US-Iran truce talk.

May 26 operating data: Pax load factor moderated as Middle East hubs reopened.

• - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
• - Read this at SGinvestors.io -

1QFY27 results preview: Forecast a net loss between S$20m-300m.

• We note that the volatility related to the Middle East situation has cast significant uncertainties in our 1QFY27 earnings forecast. Based on the updated operating statistics and jet fuel price development (having peaked in early-Apr 26 and since trended downward), we forecast SIA to record a net loss in 1QFY27, ranging between S$20m-300m, driven by elevated jet fuel prices and expanded losses from Air India; this is compared to SIA’s reported net profit of S$186m in 1QFY26, and S$441m in 4QFY26.

• We highlight that, excluding Air India, SIA’s own operations should remain profitable, thanks to its comfortable fuel hedging positions (having hedged 46% of its projected 1QFY27 fuel consumptions at favourable pre-war prices).

Update on the Middle East situation: US and Iran extending ceasefire for another 60 days to sort out a deal.

• Read more at SGinvestors.io.

Roy Chen CFA UOB Kay Hian Research | https://research.uobkayhian.com/ 2026-06-16

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