- Singapore Airlines (SIA)s 9MFY25/3QFY25 revenue met our expectations, inching up 3.3%/2.7% y-o-y to S$14.7/5.2bn, forming 76%/26% of the FY25e estimates. The growth was underpinned by a record passenger carried of 10.2mil, which increased 7.2% y-o-y.
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- 3QFY25 passenger yield and cargo yield both declined by 4.5% y-o-y due to heightened competition. With IATA noting that most capacity growth in 2025 will be directed toward the Asia market, coupled with a weaker cargo outlook amid U.S. tariffs, we believe yields may deteriorate further.
The Positives
Record passenger carriage.
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- Meanwhile, the growth rate for 3QFY25 cargo loaded also surpasses capacity increase by 1.8% on the back of the robust e-commerce demand, a step up in freighter charter, and spillover demand from the Red Sea conflict, which redirects time-sensitive products to air freight.
- We expect a seasonally softer 4QFY25 ahead as passenger demand in Jan-Mar tends to be softer alongside muted cargo momentum during the CNY period (Jan-Feb) due to the closure of factories.
The Negative
Yield deteriorates further.
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