With CPO prices crossing the MYR5,000/tonne mark amidst a combination of fundamental and speculative factors, we believe share prices have yet to catch up with CPO prices.
For Wilmar International (SGX:F34), however, valuation will likely remain at a discount to its China-listed peers until earnings see a significant turnaround.
CPO prices continue rising
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weather issues in South America resulting in slower-than-expected soybean planting progress in the initial few weeks of planting – although this has since caught up. This raised soybean oil prices by 14% in the last three weeks;
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(more speculative in nature) Donald Trump’s win in the US General Elections. In the 2016 election when Trump won, soybean and PO prices rallied 17% and 28% a few months before the election. Post election, prices rose further, by 10% and 11% to a peak of US$832/tonne and MYR3,306/tonne from end-2016 to early 2017.
Rest of 2024 to be susceptible to speculative activities…
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Above is an excerpt from a report by RHB Securities Research. Clients of RHB may be the first to access the full PDF report @ https://www.rhbtradesmart.com/.