- A potential Trump presidential victory could result in an escalation of the US-China trade & tech war, while also raising global tariffs and protectionist policies. Singapore is unlikely to be spared.
Risks abound, but Singapore may be a relative winner
- Yet an existing US-Singapore FTA, a big bi-lateral trade deficit and diversified imports may blunt the sharpest corners.
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- Manufacturing and Internet could also see opportunities.
- REITs – especially those with China and FX exposure - may see downside risks.
Trump 2.0 could bring dramatic trade policy changes
- Donald Trump’s lead in the polls have widened following the US presidential debate on 27 June. An election victory in November could lead to five potential policy shocks:
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- eliminating “deminimis” of $800;
- imposing tariffs on “currency manipulators”;
- imposing tariffs on carbon-heavy imports; and
- revoking China’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status.
- Singapore is unlikely to be spared from collateral damage. However, a diversified import base, a US-Singapore free trade agreement (FTA), a bilateral trade deficit as a large importer of US services including R&D, IP, and professional & management services could give some buffer.
REITs face downside risks, manufacturing mixed
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