Singapore Strategy - Maybank Research 2024-07-10: If Trump Wins

• A potential Trump presidential victory could result in an escalation of the US-China trade & tech war, while also raising global tariffs and protectionist policies. Singapore is unlikely to be spared.

Risks abound, but Singapore may be a relative winner

• Yet an existing US-Singapore FTA, a big bi-lateral trade deficit and diversified imports may blunt the sharpest corners.
• - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
• Manufacturing and Internet could also see opportunities.
• REITs – especially those with China and FX exposure - may see downside risks.

Trump 2.0 could bring dramatic trade policy changes

• Donald Trump’s lead in the polls have widened following the US presidential debate on 27 June. An election victory in November could lead to five potential policy shocks:
  1. - Read this at SGinvestors.io -
  2. eliminating “deminimis” of $800;
  3. imposing tariffs on “currency manipulators”;
  4. imposing tariffs on carbon-heavy imports; and
  5. revoking China’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status.
• Singapore is unlikely to be spared from collateral damage. However, a diversified import base, a US-Singapore free trade agreement (FTA), a bilateral trade deficit as a large importer of US services including R&D, IP, and professional & management services could give some buffer.

REITs face downside risks, manufacturing mixed

• Read more at SGinvestors.io.

Thilan Wickramasinghe Maybank Research | https://www.maybank-ke.com.sg/ 2024-07-10 SGinvestors.io

---