- We expect NPAT momentum to decelerate further when Wilmar International (SGX:F34) reports 2Q23 earnings on 11 Aug. See earnings calendar.
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- A continued weaker growth outlook in China coupled with seasonal production peak for palm oil (which could weaken prices further), should limit room for positive earnings momentum in 2023E, in our view. We lower Wilmar's target price to S$3.99 and with 10% upside, HOLD.
China demand growth slow
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- We expect volumes to continue to see weakness following -11% q-o-q in 1Q23 here. Recall in 1Q23, Feed & Industrial Products volumes fell -15% q-o-q. Cooling Chinese growth may continue to drive downside on this segment, in our view.
- Nevertheless, falling input costs from palm oil, soybeans, should help margins. We have upgraded this segment’s PBT/MT by 33% each in 2023-24E.
Softer CPO price expectations
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