• The Straits Times index (STI) booked a 7% total return in November, with Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks in 2022-to-date paralleling the monthly return. The Consumer Cyclical Sector led the most traded stocks over the month with Genting Singapore, Jardine C&C, NIO Inc, The Hour Glass, Parkson Retail Asia and mm2 Asia averaging 15% total returns.

• These 100 stocks booked S$712 million of net institutional fund inflow in the year-to-date, with Banks, Consumer Cyclicals and the Telecommunication Sectors leading the net inflow, while the REIT, Energy and Healthcare Sectors booked the most net outflows.

• The region benefited from a 5% decline of the US Dollar Index over the month, in addition to growing expectations Asia will be the main engine of global growth in 2023 and 2024, and key China policy moves such as optimised COVID rules, fiscal support to small businesses and supportive property market policies.

In November 2022, the STI added 6.4%, with dividends boosting the total return to 6.9%. This was the strongest price performance for the STI since March 2021, with the broader FTSE Asia Pacific Index generating one of its strongest monthly gains on records. As illustrated below, the FTSE Asia Pacific Index 10.7% total return (in SGD terms) for November, pared the decline of the benchmark over the past 11 months to 14.8%.

The 100 most traded Singapore stocks in the year-to-date include the 30 STI constituents, and have comprised 95% of the turnover of the Singapore stock market over the past 11 months. These 100 stocks averaged a 6.6% total return for the month, with the median total return at 5.7%. These 100 stocks also booked S$712 million of net institutional fund inflow in November, bringing the net institutional fund inflow for the 100 stocks over the past 11 months to S$1.18 billion.

UOB (SGX:U11), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX:C07), SingTel (SGX:Z74), CapitaLand Investment (SGX:9CI) and Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) led the net fund inflow of the 100 stocks over the month.

On the 30 Nov session, Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX:C07) traded 25x its usual trading turnover with S$119 million of net institutional fund inflow with the stock added to the MSCI Singapore Free Index on the close.

As illustrated below, among the 100 stocks, Banks, Consumer Cyclicals and the Telecommunications Sectors led the net fund inflow in November 2022, with the 3 Sectors albeit in order of Telecommunications, Banks and Consumer Cyclicals also leading the net fund inflow for the past 11 months.

In Singapore, SingTel (SGX:Z74) has booked the most net institutional fund inflow over the past 11 months, with S$924 million of net inflow, and follows on from DBS (SGX:D05) booking the most net institutional inflow in 2021.

For November, the REIT Sector led the net fund outflows, with the Sector also leading the net fund outflows over the past 11 months.

The outlook for Asia Growth, US interest rates were key market drivers throughout November.

• On the growth front, the OECD predicted global GDP growth would slide from 3.1% in 2022, to 2.2% in 2023, while it maintained Asia will be the ‘main engine of growth’ in 2023 and 2024, whereas Europe, North America and South America are expected to see ‘very low growth’. The outlook for China growth was particularly helped in November, with policy moves that included optimised COVID rules to bolster the economy, fiscal support to small businesses, supportive monetary policy, in addition to reports of a series of supportive property market policies that include 16 measures co-released by the PBOC and the CBIRC.

• For US interest rates, much focus has remained on the 14 Dec FOMC, with marginally more dovish expectations of a 50bps, rather than a 75bps hike building over the month. Meanwhile, the outlook for 2023 interest rates remains highly fluid, and over the month 2023 US interest rate expectations become marginally more hawkish, with most expectations now seeing the peak rate at 5.00-5.25%, taking effect in March, and carrying through until the 1 Nov 2023 FOMC. This saw the US Dollar Index decline 5% for the month, while longer term 10-year UST yields eased from 4.05% to 3.60% over the month.

Meanwhile, the 3 key downside risks to look out for in 2023, relayed by MTI last week, include:

• The impact of the ‘simultaneous’ raising of interest rates to curb inflation producing a larger than expected impact on advanced economy growth;

• The potential for financial stability risks intensifying if there are disorderly market adjustments to the raising interest rates; and

• The escalation of the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains, business, and consumer confidence.

For the 100 most traded Singapore stocks year-to-date, the Consumer Cyclicals and Technology Sectors led the November gains.

• On the Consumer Cyclical side, Genting Singapore (SGX:G13), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX:C07), NIO (SGX:NIO), The Hour Glass (SGX:AGS), Parkson Retail Asia (SGX:O9E) (on the SGX Watchlist) and mm2 Asia (SGX:1B0) averaged 15% total returns.

• Average total returns for the relevant Technology stocks closely followed with AEM (SGX:AWX), UMS (SGX:558), Frencken (SGX:E28), NanoFilm Technologies (SGX:MZH), iFAST (SGX:AIY), Aztech Global (SGX:8AZ), ISDN (SGX:I07), and Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) averaging 14% total returns over the month.

Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks in 2022-to-date.

Sources: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 30 Nov 2022).
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