While the developments in US Election buoyed stocks across the region last week, the STI was one of just two Asia Pacific stock benchmarks that rallied above 6.0% over the five sessions, with the other benchmark South Korea’s KOSPI.
While much post-election focus has revolved around the pending fiscal stimulus and effective plans to deal with the Coronavirus in the US, the region kept pace with US benchmarks last week on the potential for a de-escalation of the US-China trade war which has weighed the region since January 2018.
Amongst Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks this year, the trio of UMS Holdings, Hi-P International and Synagie led net institutional inflows (proportionate to market capitalisation) last week, with the trio representing somewhat of a microcosm of the technology side of regional supply chains.
Singapore serves as an ASEAN hub for Financial Services and is recognised as biggest intra-ASEAN exporter and importer of Financials Services. Last week, Singapore’s 3 banks averaged 8.1% gains on S$250 million of net institutional inflow, while reporting more than S$5.0 billion in combined 3QFY20 NII.
While the developments in US Election buoyed stocks across the region, last week the STI was one of two APAC benchmarks that rallied more than 6.0% per day, with the other benchmark South Korea’s KOSPI. While much commentary has revolved around the pending fiscal stimulus and effective plans to deal with the Coronavirus in the US, the region kept pace with US benchmarks last week on the potential for a de-escalation of the US-China trade tensions.
The impact of the potential course correction in trade tensions has also been powered by high levels of liquidity in the global reserve currency. According to AAS Economics, in October 2020, its proprietary gauge for US money supply grew by 59% year-on-year, which was slightly down from the peak in August of 65% but still very elevated, and compared to 5% at the end of 2019. At the same time the annual growth rate of the Federal Reserve balance sheet (total assets) for early November is at 77%, after peaking back in June at 86%. The liquidity provisions are supporting businesses in the US economy, and by extension the global economy, to help offset the economic dishevel brought on by policies to combat the Coronavirus.
Continued Supply Chain Focus
Openness, cooperation and integration are structural drivers of trade-related growth across ASEAN. However, recent years of US-China trade tensions has brought caution to corporate outlooks, impacting confidence in value chains and trade-related opportunities across the region and sub-region of 620 million consumers. Since the US-China trade tensions began, the FTSE All-Share ASEAN Index generated a decline in total return of 15.3% with Singapore stocks currently making up 24.5% of the Index. The declines of the STI and FTSE ST All-Share Index, since the end of 2017, were closely aligned with the region, with respective declines of 15.0% and 13.4%.
While demand for digitalisation and WFH-related technologies, medical devices and protective equipment has been a key upside driver of manufacturing in 2020, confidence in overall local manufacturing has still not returned to pre US-China trade tension levels. The most recent high of the SIPMM PMI at 53.1, was in January 2018, the same month the US announced tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. While the last four months have seen expansion in the Singapore PMI, between May 2019 and June 2020, the PMI was in contraction for 12 of the 14 months.
Amongst Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks this year, the trio of UMS Holdings, Hi-P International and Synagie led net institutional inflows (proportionate to market capitalisation) last week. The trio do represent a somewhat of a microcosm of the technology side of regional supply chains.
Apple supplier, Hi-P International rallied 13% last week, ranking it among the five strongest stocks of Singapore’s 100 most actively traded. Hi-P International has been continuously working on diversifying its production regions and customer base since the US-China tensions began, and potential escalations remained on the radar in the company’s mid-year FY20 outlook. While UMS Holdings reported 47% y-o-y net profit growth in 1HFY20, the trade tensions remained a challenge (along with the Coronavirus and currency volatility) which resulted in the business working to sharpen its production efficiencies and supply chain networks. Also note that coinciding with more evidence of a gradual recovery in manufacturing in Singapore, a number of mid-cap Industrial stocks with exposures to China, and regional supply chains did see increased trading activity in October which extended to REITs with industrial properties.
|52 of 100 Most Traded
Singapore Stocks Recipient with
Net Institutional Inflow Last Week
6Nov Market Cap
|UMS||558||9%||0.755%||-1%||Technology (Hardware/ Software)|
|Synagie||V2Y||3%||0.395%||55%||Technology (Hardware/ Software)|
|Sheng Siong||OV8||1%||0.241%||35%||Consumer Non-Cyclicals|
|Mapletree Commercial Trust||N2IU||12%||0.213%||-20%||REITs|
|Jiutian Chemical||C8R||39%||0.186%||571%||Materials & Resources|
|Yoma Strategic||Z59||6%||0.182%||-23%||Real Estate (excl. REITs)|
|Thai Beverage||Y92||9%||0.178%||-29%||Consumer Non-Cyclicals|
|Yanlord Land||Z25||6%||0.133%||-8%||Real Estate (excl. REITs)|
|Mapletree Industrial Trust||ME8U||5%||0.123%||23%||REITs|
|CDL Hospitality Trusts||J85||8%||0.121%||-34%||REITs|
|Far East Hospitality Trust||Q5T||4%||0.118%||-21%||REITs|
|Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust||BUOU||8%||0.091%||7%||REITs|
|Manulife US REIT||BTOU||1%||0.090%||-27%||REITs|
|Frasers Centrepoint Trust||J69U||7%||0.081%||-19%||REITs|
|Mapletree Logistics Trust||M44U||7%||0.065%||20%||REITs|
|Keppel Infrastructure Trust||A7RU||1%||0.064%||2%||Utilities|
|OCBC Bank||O39||6%||0.062%||-19%||Financial Services|
|IPS Securex||42N||1%||0.060%||100%||Technology (Hardware/ Software)|
|Wilmar International||F34||7%||0.054%||5%||Consumer Non-Cyclicals|
|Dairy Farm International||D01||7%||0.049%||-28%||Consumer Non-Cyclicals|
|Raffles Medical Group||BSL||4%||0.039%||-20%||Healthcare|
|Hongkong Land||H78||5%||0.023%||-32%||Real Estate (excl. REITs)|
|Ascendas India Trust||CY6U||7%||0.020%||-10%||REITs|
|Hutchishon Port Holdings Trust||NS8U||-3%||0.019%||-17%||Industrials|
|Ascott Residence Trust||HMN||4%||0.011%||-35%||REITs|
|Sri Trang Agro||NC2||-1%||0.010%||240%||Consumer Cyclicals|
|Jardine C&C||C07||7%||0.006%||-37%||Consumer Cyclicals|
Singapore serves as an ASEAN hub for Financial Services and is recognised as biggest intra-ASEAN exporter and importer of Financials Services. Last week, Singapore’s Banks averaged 8.1% gains last week on S$250 million of net institutional inflow, which brought their average decline in the 2020 year-to-date decline in total return to 14.0%. For their 3QFY20, DBS, OCBC and UOB also reported last week a combined S$5.1 billion in Net Interest Income (NII). The three banks have consecutively and resiliently reported combined NII above S$5.0 billion since 1QFY18. The trio also maintain an average ROE of 11% compared to the median ROE of the world’s top quartile of globally listed banks by market value at 8% which have generated a median decline of 18.6% in the 2020 year-to-date.