Amongst the 50 most traded SGX-listed stocks of 2020 through to 7 Feb, four Real Estate stocks were amongst the five strongest performers - Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Ascendas REIT and Manulife REIT.
These performances coincided with low interest rate expectations continuing into 2020- consensus expectations for a Federal Funds interest rate cut in 2020 have increased to 80% from 50% at the end of 2019, with expectations for a 25 bps cut moving from Dec 2020 to Sep 2020.
Singapore Government has announced publicly-listed developers with substantial Singapore connections can apply to be QC-exempted. In reaction, on Friday, City Dev opened +1.8%, UOL opened +1.0% & Bukit Sembawang +1.3% before broad afternoon declines weighed the trio.
As many as 22 of the 50 most traded Singapore stocks in the 2020 year through to 7 February, have been either Real Estate Developers, Managers or Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REITs”). Together the 22 stocks have seen net institutional inflows of S$204 million, with Ascendas REIT, CapitaLand and Mapletree Logistics REIT leading the inflows. Together the 22 Real Estate stocks generated a higher median total return than the broader 50 stocks in both the 2020 year to 7 February (+2%) and the past three years (+46%).
REITs supported by Interest Rate Outlook in Early 2020
REITs led the broader market in 2019 on outlooks for lower global interest rates. This theme continued somewhat over the first five weeks of 2020 with the US Dollar Index gaining 2%, yields on 10 year US Treasury Notes declining from 1.92% to 1.59%, and WTI Crude Oil declining 18% to near US$50.20/bbl. Moreover, at the end of 2019, consensus expectations for a Federal Funds Rate cut in 2020 have increased. At the end of 2019, expectations for a 2020 cut in the Federal Funds Rate were at 50%, with the most likely scenario a 25 bps cut in December. Last week, expectations for a 2020 cut in the Federal Funds Rate were near 80%, with the most likely scenario a 25 bps cut in September.
The strongest S-REITs in the 2020 year through to 7 February that have also ranked amongst the 50 most traded stocks were Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Ascendas REIT and Manulife REIT.
Publicly-listed Developers with Substantial Singapore Connection Supported by Measures
Early Thursday evening the Singapore government announced with immediate effect, publicly listed developers with a substantial connection to Singapore can apply to be exempted from the Qualifying Certificate (“QC”) regime. Successful application means the relevant listed developers would be no longer subject to certain conditions when they buy residential land for development.
The application will be assessed according to criteria such as i) incorporation in Singapore, ii) primary listing is on the Singapore Exchange and principal place of business is Singapore, iii) the chairperson and the majority of the company’s board are Singapore citizens, iv) A significantly Singaporean shareholding interest in the company and v) track record in Singapore. Click here for more.
As noted by the SLA, under the Residential Property Act, any housing developer that is not considered a Singapore company has to apply for a QC when it purchases residential land for development, other than from the Government. Under the QC regime, it is required to complete the development within five years and dispose of all units within two years of completion.
Developer stocks opened higher than the broader market on the open of trading on 7 February. While the market open of the 7 February saw the Straits Times Index open down 0.5% from the Thursday 6 February close, City Developments opened 1.8% higher, UOL Group opened 1.0% higher, and Bukit Sembawang opened 1.3% higher. However, broader market weakness in the course of the trading session weighed those gains into the close.
| 22 Real Estate Stocks Amongst 50 Most Traded Stocks in 2020 YTD |
Stock Code |
Turnover Rank in 2020 YTD |
Approx Turnover Rank in 2019 |
Net Insti Flow in 2020 YTD (S$M) |
Net Insti Flow in 2019 (S$M) |
MKT Cap (S$) |
2020 YTD Total Return |
2019 Total Return |
3 Yr Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapitaLand | C31 | 5 | 7 | 58 | 224.4 | 18.66B | -1% | 25% | 18% |
| Ascendas REIT | A17U | 6 | 5 | 64 | -28.4 | 11.61B | 9% | 24% | 58% |
| CapitaMall Trust | C38U | 8 | 8 | -1 | -45.8 | 9.04B | 1% | 13% | 46% |
| CapitaCom Trust | C61U | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34.0 | 7.87B | 4% | 19% | 56% |
| Mapletree Com Tr | N2IU | 12 | 11 | -2 | -2.8 | 7.54B | -4% | 53% | 75% |
| CityDev | C09 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 123.9 | 10.01B | 1% | 38% | 22% |
| Mapletree Log Tr | M44U | 14 | 18 | 24 | 36.8 | 7.21B | 10% | 46% | 114% |
| Suntec REIT | T82U | 19 | 21 | -7 | -63.3 | 5.09B | 0% | 9% | 23% |
| HongkongLand USD | H78 | 23 | 17 | -1 | -96.9 | 17.84B | -2% | -7% | -14% |
| Mapletree Ind Tr | ME8U | 24 | 26 | 6 | 17.9 | 6.12B | 8% | 44% | 100% |
| Mapletree NAC Tr | RW0U | 25 | 24 | 7 | -38.7 | 3.80B | 4% | 8% | 51% |
| UOL | U14 | 29 | 31 | 14 | 117.4 | 6.91B | -2% | 38% | 32% |
| Keppel DC REIT | AJBU | 32 | 32 | 10 | 3.5 | 3.79B | 13% | 66% | 131% |
| Ascott Trust | HMN | 34 | N/A | -13 | N/A | 3.88B | -2% | 31% | 38% |
| Frasers L&I Tr | BUOU | 36 | 34 | 9 | 27.3 | 2.87B | 2% | 28% | 60% |
| Keppel REIT | K71U | 40 | 35 | 7 | 42.0 | 4.23B | 2% | 14% | 41% |
| Manulife REIT USD | BTOU | 41 | 50 | 9 | 3.9 | 2.29B | 9% | 40% | 64% |
| CDL HTrust | J85 | 42 | 48 | -11 | -12.5 | 1.82B | -4% | 17% | 33% |
| CapitaR China Tr | AU8U | 43 | 51 | -2 | -3.2 | 1.84B | -6% | 28% | 25% |
| Frasers Cpt Tr | J69U | 45 | 42 | 6 | 12.3 | 3.20B | 3% | 36% | 65% |
| Cromwell REIT EUR | CNNU | 49 | 57 | 1 | -23.7 | 2.14B | 3% | 28% | N/A |
| ESR-REIT | J91U | 50 | 49 | 10 | 13.0 | 1.92B | 5% | 12% | 24% |
| Average | 2% | 28% | 51% | ||||||
| Median | 2% | 28% | 46% |
Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg (Data as of 7 February 2020)
The 20 strongest stocks of the 50 most traded stocks ranked by turnover in the 2020 year through to 7 February are tabled below. The 5 strongest performing stocks over the five weeks were Medtecs International, Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistical Trust, Ascendas REIT and Manulife US REIT.
Singapore’s most traded healthcare-related stocks by turnover in the 2020 year through to 7 February after Medtecs International, were First REIT (#59), Raffles Medical Group (#64), UG Healthcare (#67), Parkway Life REIT (#82) and Riverstone Holdings (#88).
| 20 Strongest Stocks Amongst 50 Most Traded Stocks in 2020 YTD |
Stock Code |
Turnover Rank in 2020 YTD |
Approx Turnover Rank in 2019 |
Net Insti Flow in 2020 YTD (S$M) |
Net Insti Flow in 2019 (S$M) |
MKT Cap (S$) |
2020 YTD Total Return |
2019 Total Return |
3 Yr Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medtecs Intl | 546 | 31 | 268 | -12 | 0.1 | 56.59M | 178% | 37% | 119% |
| Keppel DC REIT | AJBU | 32 | 32 | 10 | 3.5 | 3.79B | 13% | 66% | 131% |
| Mapletree Log Tr | M44U | 14 | 18 | 24 | 36.8 | 7.21B | 10% | 46% | 114% |
| Ascendas REIT | A17U | 6 | 5 | 64 | -28.4 | 11.61B | 9% | 24% | 58% |
| Manulife REIT USD | BTOU | 41 | 50 | 9 | 3.9 | 2.29B | 9% | 40% | 64% |
| Mapletree Ind Tr | ME8U | 24 | 26 | 6 | 17.9 | 6.12B | 8% | 44% | 100% |
| JMH USD | J36 | 20 | 14 | 6 | -13.3 | 59.57B | 8% | -19% | -2% |
| NetLink NBN Tr | CJLU | 37 | 38 | 9 | -24.1 | 3.94B | 7% | 31% | N/A |
| JSH USD | J37 | 28 | 25 | 4 | 0.8 | 48.20B | 5% | -17% | -17% |
| ESR-REIT | J91U | 50 | 49 | 10 | 13.0 | 1.92B | 5% | 12% | 24% |
| CapitaCom Trust | C61U | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34.0 | 7.87B | 4% | 19% | 56% |
| ST Engineering | S63 | 17 | 20 | 40 | 146.0 | 12.80B | 4% | 17% | 38% |
| Mapletree NAC Tr | RW0U | 25 | 24 | 7 | -38.7 | 3.80B | 4% | 8% | 51% |
| Frasers Cpt Tr | J69U | 45 | 42 | 6 | 12.3 | 3.20B | 3% | 36% | 65% |
| Cromwell REIT EUR | CNNU | 49 | 57 | 1 | -23.7 | 2.14B | 3% | 28% | N/A |
| Frasers L&I Tr | BUOU | 36 | 34 | 9 | 27.3 | 2.87B | 2% | 28% | 60% |
| Keppel REIT | K71U | 40 | 35 | 7 | 42.0 | 4.23B | 2% | 14% | 41% |
| Venture | V03 | 22 | 16 | 33 | -4.8 | 4.74B | 1% | 21% | 81% |
| CapitaMall Trust | C38U | 8 | 8 | -1 | -45.8 | 9.04B | 1% | 13% | 46% |
| CityDev | C09 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 123.9 | 10.01B | 1% | 38% | 22% |
Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg (Data as of 7 February 2020)
