SGX Market Updates

Real Estate Stocks Led Most Traded Stocks Over Past 5 Weeks


PUBLISHED ON |

10 February 2020

  • Amongst the 50 most traded SGX-listed stocks of 2020 through to 7 Feb, four Real Estate stocks were amongst the five strongest performers - Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Ascendas REIT and Manulife REIT.

  • These performances coincided with low interest rate expectations continuing into 2020- consensus expectations for a Federal Funds interest rate cut in 2020 have increased to 80% from 50% at the end of 2019, with expectations for a 25 bps cut moving from Dec 2020 to Sep 2020.

  • Singapore Government has announced publicly-listed developers with substantial Singapore connections can apply to be QC-exempted. In reaction, on Friday, City Dev opened +1.8%, UOL opened +1.0% & Bukit Sembawang +1.3% before broad afternoon declines weighed the trio.  




As many as 22 of the 50 most traded Singapore stocks in the 2020 year through to 7 February, have been either Real Estate Developers, Managers or Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REITs”). Together the 22 stocks have seen net institutional inflows of S$204 million, with Ascendas REIT, CapitaLand and Mapletree Logistics REIT leading the inflows. Together the 22 Real Estate stocks generated a higher median total return than the broader 50 stocks in both the 2020 year to 7 February (+2%) and the past three years (+46%).



REITs supported by Interest Rate Outlook in Early 2020

REITs led the broader market in 2019 on outlooks for lower global interest rates. This theme continued somewhat over the first five weeks of 2020 with the US Dollar Index gaining 2%, yields on 10 year US Treasury Notes declining from 1.92% to 1.59%, and WTI Crude Oil declining 18% to near US$50.20/bbl. Moreover, at the end of 2019, consensus expectations for a Federal Funds Rate cut in 2020 have increased. At the end of 2019, expectations for a 2020 cut in the Federal Funds Rate were at 50%, with the most likely scenario a 25 bps cut in December. Last week, expectations for a 2020 cut in the Federal Funds Rate were near 80%, with the most likely scenario a 25 bps cut in September.

The strongest S-REITs in the 2020 year through to 7 February that have also ranked amongst the 50 most traded stocks were Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Ascendas REIT and Manulife REIT.



Publicly-listed Developers with Substantial Singapore Connection Supported by Measures

Early Thursday evening the Singapore government announced with immediate effect, publicly listed developers with a substantial connection to Singapore can apply to be exempted from the Qualifying Certificate (“QC”) regime. Successful application means the relevant listed developers would be no longer subject to certain conditions when they buy residential land for development.

The application will be assessed according to criteria such as i) incorporation in Singapore, ii) primary listing is on the Singapore Exchange and principal place of business is Singapore, iii) the chairperson and the majority of the company’s board are Singapore citizens, iv) A significantly Singaporean shareholding interest in the company and v) track record in Singapore. Click here for more.

As noted by the SLA, under the Residential Property Act, any housing developer that is not considered a Singapore company has to apply for a QC when it purchases residential land for development, other than from the Government. Under the QC regime, it is required to complete the development within five years and dispose of all units within two years of completion.

Developer stocks opened higher than the broader market on the open of trading on 7 February. While the market open of the 7 February saw the Straits Times Index open down 0.5% from the Thursday 6 February close, City Developments opened 1.8% higher, UOL Group opened 1.0% higher, and Bukit Sembawang opened 1.3% higher. However, broader market weakness in the course of the trading session weighed those gains into the close.

22 Real Estate Stocks
Amongst 50 Most Traded
Stocks in 2020 YTD
Stock
Code
Turnover
Rank in
2020 YTD
Approx
Turnover
Rank in
2019
Net Insti
Flow in
2020 YTD
(S$M)
Net Insti
Flow in
2019
(S$M)
MKT Cap
(S$)
2020 YTD
Total
Return
2019
Total
Return
3 Yr
Total
Return
CapitaLand C31 5 7 58 224.4 18.66B -1% 25% 18%
Ascendas REIT A17U 6 5 64 -28.4 11.61B 9% 24% 58%
CapitaMall Trust C38U 8 8 -1 -45.8 9.04B 1% 13% 46%
CapitaCom Trust C61U 10 10 7 34.0 7.87B 4% 19% 56%
Mapletree Com Tr N2IU 12 11 -2 -2.8 7.54B -4% 53% 75%
CityDev C09 13 22 9 123.9 10.01B 1% 38% 22%
Mapletree Log Tr M44U 14 18 24 36.8 7.21B 10% 46% 114%
Suntec REIT T82U 19 21 -7 -63.3 5.09B 0% 9% 23%
HongkongLand USD H78 23 17 -1 -96.9 17.84B -2% -7% -14%
Mapletree Ind Tr ME8U 24 26 6 17.9 6.12B 8% 44% 100%
Mapletree NAC Tr RW0U 25 24 7 -38.7 3.80B 4% 8% 51%
UOL U14 29 31 14 117.4 6.91B -2% 38% 32%
Keppel DC REIT AJBU 32 32 10 3.5 3.79B 13% 66% 131%
Ascott Trust HMN 34 N/A -13 N/A 3.88B -2% 31% 38%
Frasers L&I Tr BUOU 36 34 9 27.3 2.87B 2% 28% 60%
Keppel REIT K71U 40 35 7 42.0 4.23B 2% 14% 41%
Manulife REIT USD BTOU 41 50 9 3.9 2.29B 9% 40% 64%
CDL HTrust J85 42 48 -11 -12.5 1.82B -4% 17% 33%
CapitaR China Tr AU8U 43 51 -2 -3.2 1.84B -6% 28% 25%
Frasers Cpt Tr J69U 45 42 6 12.3 3.20B 3% 36% 65%
Cromwell REIT EUR CNNU 49 57 1 -23.7 2.14B 3% 28% N/A
ESR-REIT J91U 50 49 10 13.0 1.92B 5% 12% 24%
Average             2% 28% 51%
Median             2% 28% 46%

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg (Data as of 7 February 2020)



The 20 strongest stocks of the 50 most traded stocks ranked by turnover in the 2020 year through to 7 February are tabled below. The 5 strongest performing stocks over the five weeks were Medtecs International, Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistical Trust, Ascendas REIT and Manulife US REIT.

Singapore’s most traded healthcare-related stocks by turnover in the 2020 year through to 7 February after Medtecs International, were First REIT (#59), Raffles Medical Group (#64), UG Healthcare (#67), Parkway Life REIT (#82) and Riverstone Holdings (#88). 

20 Strongest Stocks
Amongst 50 Most Traded
Stocks in 2020 YTD
Stock
Code
Turnover
Rank in
2020 YTD
Approx
Turnover
Rank in
2019
Net Insti
Flow in
2020 YTD
(S$M)
Net Insti
Flow in
2019
(S$M)
MKT Cap
(S$)
2020 YTD
Total
Return
2019
Total
Return
3 Yr
Total
Return
Medtecs Intl 546 31 268 -12 0.1 56.59M 178% 37% 119%
Keppel DC REIT AJBU 32 32 10 3.5 3.79B 13% 66% 131%
Mapletree Log Tr M44U 14 18 24 36.8 7.21B 10% 46% 114%
Ascendas REIT A17U 6 5 64 -28.4 11.61B 9% 24% 58%
Manulife REIT USD BTOU 41 50 9 3.9 2.29B 9% 40% 64%
Mapletree Ind Tr ME8U 24 26 6 17.9 6.12B 8% 44% 100%
JMH USD J36 20 14 6 -13.3 59.57B 8% -19% -2%
NetLink NBN Tr CJLU 37 38 9 -24.1 3.94B 7% 31% N/A
JSH USD J37 28 25 4 0.8 48.20B 5% -17% -17%
ESR-REIT J91U 50 49 10 13.0 1.92B 5% 12% 24%
CapitaCom Trust C61U 10 10 7 34.0 7.87B 4% 19% 56%
ST Engineering S63 17 20 40 146.0 12.80B 4% 17% 38%
Mapletree NAC Tr RW0U 25 24 7 -38.7 3.80B 4% 8% 51%
Frasers Cpt Tr J69U 45 42 6 12.3 3.20B 3% 36% 65%
Cromwell REIT EUR CNNU 49 57 1 -23.7 2.14B 3% 28% N/A
Frasers L&I Tr BUOU 36 34 9 27.3 2.87B 2% 28% 60%
Keppel REIT K71U 40 35 7 42.0 4.23B 2% 14% 41%
Venture V03 22 16 33 -4.8 4.74B 1% 21% 81%
CapitaMall Trust C38U 8 8 -1 -45.8 9.04B 1% 13% 46%
CityDev C09 13 22 9 123.9 10.01B 1% 38% 22%

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg (Data as of 7 February 2020)







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