SGX Market Updates

STI’s Least Performers in 2018 amongst STI Leaders in Early 2019


PUBLISHED ON |

24 January 2019

  • Potential market drivers for 2018 remain in place for 2019, with markets expected to move on high frequency data providing cues on global growth, and the ongoing US-China trade negotiations into the 1 March scheduled ending of the US pause on tariff escalation.

  • Six of the seven least performing STI stocks of 2018 were amongst the STI’s 10 strongest stocks in the 2019 year through to 23 Jan. The six stocks that averaged 30% declines in total return in 2018 have averaged 11% gains over the first three weeks of 2019. 

  • Of these six STI stocks, the two that have been the strongest over the three weeks were Genting and Thai Bev. The two stocks were also amongst the five STI stocks subject to the most net capital inflow by institutional investors from 31 Dec to 18 Jan. 




The key financial market themes of downside risks to global growth and uncertainty for global trade relations have carried over from 2018, into 2019. Markets have had a firmer start to the year as US and China officials continue to negotiate trade relations ahead of the 90 day pause on US Tariff escalation ending 1 March. 

On the global growth outlook, the IMF projects that global growth will decelerate as expected, from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019. The 2019 forecast is 0.2% lower than its previous forecast of 3.7% made for 2019. Some additional key points are:

  • The IMF GDP growth forecast for the Advanced Economies in 2019 was shaved by 0.1% from the previous forecast made in October 2018.
  • The IMF GDP growth forecast for Emerging and Developing Asia in 2019 was maintained at 6.3%, as forecast in October 2018.
  • On Developing Asia, the IMF noted that despite fiscal stimulus offsetting some of the impact of higher US tariffs, China’s GDP growth is still expected to slow. This is also due to the potential influence of financial regulatory tightening. China is still projected by the IMF to grow by 6.2% in 2019.
  • The full IMF World Economic Outlook titled Brighter Prospects, Optimistic Markets, Challenges Ahead can be found here

As a consequence of the global outlook, in addition to contained inflation within the US, the Federal Reserve is set to be more patient with interest rates in 2019. The current FOMC dot plot trajectory suggests two hikes in 2019, which is half as many rate hikes as last year. This has seen global equity markets firm over the first three weeks of 2019.



Measured Moves by Multiple STI Constituents

Within the Straits Times Index (“STI”) there has been a degree of counterbalance to the moves in the 2019 year to date compared to the moves of 2018.  Last year, Hutchinson Port Holdings Trust was the least performing STI constituent, whereas in the 2019 year thus far, it has been 25th best performer among the 30 stocks, with a 1.7% price gain. Moreover, the next six least STI performers in 2018 have been amongst the STI’s 10 best performing stocks in the 2019 year thus far. 

  • Thai Beverage PCL, Genting Singapore and City Developments were amongst these six stocks and have been the STI’s strongest stocks from the end of 2018 through to 23 Jan.
  • The other half of the six stocks, Venture Corp, Golden Agri-Resources and UOL Group have ranked fifth, sixth and ninth in the STI’s best performers for the short year to date period.
  • Together these six stocks which averaged 30.3% declines in total return in 2018 have averaged 10.9% gains over the first three weeks of 2019.
  • Both Thai Beverage PCL and Genting Singapore were also amongst the five STI stocks subject to the most net capital inflow by institutional investors in the 2019 year through to 18 Jan. Combined, the two stocks were recipient of S$81 million in net institutional inflow.

Two-thirds of the STI stocks are reporting their FY18 results this earnings season. For confirmed and expected reporting dates click here, with updates to the schedule provided every Friday here.


The full list of STI stocks is tabled below.

30 STI Stocks
ranked by 2019 YTD
Price Change (%)
SGX
Code
Market
Cap
(S$Bn)
2019
YTD
Price
Change
(%)
Total
Return
in 2018
(%)
Institutions
Net Inflow
(31.12.18
~ 18.01.19)
(S$m)
3Y
Annualised
Total
Return
(%)
ROE
LTM
(%)
Thai Beverage PCL Y92 18.5 20.5 -31.7 42.7 6.3 15.2
Genting Singapore G13 13.1 11.8 -23.2 38.1 20.1 9.6
City Developments C09 8.1 10.1 -33.8 19.1 11.7 6.4
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 22.2 10.0 -6.1 14.0 6.8 10.1
Venture Corp V03 4.4 8.8 -29.1 16.6 30.3 19.0
Golden Agri-Resources E5H 3.4 8.2 -33.6 4.8 -6.8 -2.5
Singapore Press Holdings T39 4.0 6.8 -6.9 15.3 -6.9 7.4
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding BS6 5.3 6.4 -11.4 17.3 17.5 12.2
UOL Group U14 5.5 6.1 -28.8 10.1 8.3 4.1
CapitaLand C31 13.6 5.1 -9.0 -20.1 6.1 8.2
CapitaLand Commercial Trust C61U 6.9 4.6 -5.0 0.7 19.2 7.3
Dairy Farm Intl Hldgs D01 17.4 4.4 20.4 2.3 17.9 24.1
United Overseas Bank U11 42.7 4.4 -3.3 56.3 17.5 11.0
Sembcorp Industries U96 4.7 4.3 -15.0 0.8 6.7 1.7
Ascendas REIT A17U 8.3 4.3 0.3 -13.5 13.6 7.1
Singapore Tech Engineering S63 11.3 3.7 11.8 18.2 12.0 23.5
Singapore Exchange S68 7.9 3.6 0.4 20.0 7.0 38.7
Singapore Telecommunications Z74 49.5 3.4 -13.2 -0.8 0.7 10.8
Keppel Corp BN4 11.1 3.4 -16.4 14.1 11.2 2.8
Jardine Cycle & Carriage C07 14.4 3.3 -10.0 8.2 4.9 13.5
Wilmar International F34 20.4 3.2 4.3 3.3 8.1 9.3
CapitaLand Mall Trust C38U 8.5 2.2 12.7 -18.5 11.7 9.4
DBS Group Holdings D05 61.7 2.0 1.2 51.7 25.6 11.4
SATS S58 5.3 1.9 -7.2 8.5 10.4 15.8
Hutchison Port Holdings Tr-U NS8U 3.0 1.7 -34.7 -1.1 -14.1 3.6
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp O39 48.4 1.1 -6.2 68.4 17.9 11.9
Singapore Airlines C6L 11.2 0.9 -8.3 1.9 -1.5 3.6
Jardine Strategic Hldgs J37 55.7 0.6 -4.6 1.1 10.8 10.4
ComfortDelGro Corp C52 4.7 0.5 13.7 -18.8 -5.4 11.1
Jardine Matheson Hldgs J36 66.5 -4.8 19.8 -5.7 10.1 10.9

Source: SGX Stockfacts, Bloomberg, Data as of 23 January 2018, except for Net Institutional Inflow data which is as of 18 Jan and includes inflows on 31 Dec 2018.







This article is provided by SGX My Gateway.



SGX My Gateway

SGX's investor education portal with market, product and investment information and events. Sign up now at sgx.com/mygateway to receive our investment updates and economic calendar.

This document is not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Singapore Exchange Limited (“SGX”) to any registration or licensing requirement. This document is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell, nor financial advice or recommendation for any investment product. This document is for general circulation only. It does not address the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product before investing or adopting any investment strategies. Use of and/or reliance on this document is entirely at the reader’s own risk. Further information on this investment product may be obtained from www.sgx.com. Investment products are subject to significant investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance of investment products is not indicative of their future performance. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only. While each of SGX and its affiliates (collectively, the SGX Group Companies) have taken reasonable care to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, each of the SGX Group Companies disclaims any and all guarantees, representations and warranties, expressed or implied, in relation to this document and shall not be responsible or liable (whether under contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise) for any loss or damage of any kind (whether direct, indirect or consequential losses or other economic loss of any kind, including without limitation loss of profit, loss of reputation and loss of opportunity) suffered or incurred by any person due to any omission, error, inaccuracy, incompleteness, or otherwise, any reliance on such information, or arising from and/or in connection with this document. The information in this document may have been obtained via third party sources and which have not been independently verified by any SGX Group Company. No SGX Group Company endorses or shall be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. The SGX Group Companies may deal in investment products in the usual course of their business, and may be on the opposite side of any trades. SGX is an exempt financial adviser under the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore. The information in this document is subject to change without notice. This document shall not be reproduced, republished, uploaded, linked, posted, transmitted, adapted, copied, translated, modified, edited or otherwise displayed or distributed in any manner without SGX’s prior written consent.












Stock / REIT Search

Advertisement

Advertisement