- We expect the Fed Funds Rate to reach a peak of 5.0% by mid-23 and remain at elevated levels in 2H23. We expect DBS and OCBC to increase dividend by 17% and 7% respectively to S$1.68 and S$0.60 in 2023.
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Moderation in pace of rate hike.
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised the target for Fed Funds Rate by 50bp to 4.25% on 14 Dec 22. This is a step down from a series of four consecutive 75bp hikes.
Too early to talk about rate cuts.
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- inflation for housing services is expected to ease in 2023 as rents for new leases have declined, and
- inflation for core services (non-housing) is expected to take a longer time to moderate due to high labour-content of 55%, elevated job vacancies and growth in wages.
- The committee expects core PCE inflation to recede gradually to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.
Labour market is too tight.
- Read more at SGinvestors.io.