SATS - CGS-CIMB Research 2022-09-29: Valuations Of WFS In-Line With Industry, Public Equity Need Time To Digest

SATS - Valuations Of WFS In-Line With Industry, Public Equity Need Time To Digest

SATS LTD. (SGX:S58) | SGinvestors.ioSATS LTD. (SGX:S58)
  • SATS announced acquisition of Worldwide Flight Services (WFS) at an EV of S$3.11bn and equity of S$1.74bn, indicating EV/EBITDA and P/E 9.7x/45.1x based on TTM financials disclosed as at Mar 2022. In terms of EV/EBITDA, valuation is in line with historical average of 9.8x, according to Menzies. Menzies was also subsequently acquired by Agility at a 10.7x valuation.
  • We also believe the opportunity to extend SATS’ market reach beyond APAC into US and Europe with immediate market-leading positions without operational overlap, especially in the cargo handling space, is hard to come by.
  • Post-acquisition, SATS will have leading positions in 5 of the top 10 airports across North America, EMEA and APAC, and handle more than 50% in global cargo volume.
  • Currently, WFS owns ~S$1.67bn of debt, which is serviced at an interest rate of 7-8% p.a. Pro-forma net gearing stands at 0.43x. With SATS’ strong balance sheet and credit history alongside strong shareholder support, we believe it has room to recapitalise WFS.
  • With the Purchase Price Allocation (PPA) undetermined and uncertainty to normalisation of earnings profile of WFS, we believe it will be premature to bake in forecasts of the combined entity. Refer to document in SATS' announcement dated 2022-09-28, Investors can also take heed from the Equity Fund-Raising (EFR) illustration provided by SATS, which we believe to be worst-case scenario for fund-raising structure, with the entire acquisition consideration of S$1,820m (i.e. €1,313m) to be funded via combination of a S$1.7bn rights issue at S$2.79 subscription price and S$120m from internal cash reserves, leading to a Theoretical Ex-Rights Price (TERP) of S$3.49.
  • SATS' target base case entails a mix of EFR, placement of new shares, as well as equity-linked instruments which could mean a less punitive dilution. Long-term shareholders may stay invested although near-term SATS share price could weaken on macro uncertainty.
  • Maintain ADD recommendation on SATS with an unchanged target price of S$4.47. We await clarity on the funding profile of the WFS acquisition.




Above is the excerpt from research report by CGS-CIMB.
Clients of CGS-CIMB may access the full report in PDF @ https://www.itradecimb.com.sg/.




TAY Wee Kuang CGS-CIMB Research | LIM Siew Khee CGS-CIMB Research | https://www.cgs-cimb.com 2022-09-29



Read also CGS-CIMB's most recent report:
2023-01-14 SATS - Peek Into Pro-Forma WFS Numbers Ahead.

Previous report by CGS-CIMB:
2022-12-02 SATS - Finalisation Of Funding Structure For WFS Acquisition.

Price targets by 3 other brokers at SATS Target Prices.
Listing of research reports at SATS Analyst Reports.

Relevant links:
SATS Share Price History,
SATS Announcements,
SATS Dividends & Corporate Actions,
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